There will be no Middle East Peace deal without Tehran’s Blessing
For there to be peace inside and along the borders of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has to negotiate one or more peace deals with Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian authority. The courting of Syria by the West is on track, and a deal with them will provide momentum towards a deal with the Palestinians.
The Syria peace deal does not need to be done until the Palestinians are ready to talk peace. And until the turmoil in Tehran is resolved, it will not become clear to the leadership of Hamas whether Iran will let them negotiate at all. For, by contrast to the courting of Syria, the west attempts to court Hamas have been disastrous.
When secret “Proximity” talks took place in London recently between western intelligence officials, Israelis and advisers to the Hamas Prime Minister Haniyya, President Abbas condemned the talks (worried that Hamas was outmanouevering Fatah). But the talks made no progress not because of anything said by Abbas, but because of the influence of Tehran over the leadership of Hamas.
Since the West’s attempt to court Hamas, one of Hamas’ lead in the talks, Dr. Yusuf, has been deposed of his position as advisor to PM Haniyya and moved to a marginal position in the foreign ministry. His colleague and partner Gazi Hamad was deposed as Haniyya’s spokesman and moved to the position of the closed Rafah crossing station. The forces in Hamas that do not want a dialogue with the West are stronger than the proponents of this dialogue.
The reason they do not want a dialogue is because they are propped up by Tehran, which has its own agenda – to build a nuclear bomb. To achieve this, Tehran needs to deter Israel from launching a unilateral attack on their nuclear facilities, and they need Gaza as part of that deterrence. Any Western influence in Gaza will detach Hamas from playing a part in Iran’s deterrence wall. The message Tehran is trying to send is, If Israel attacks Iran, then Israel can expect retaliation from Gaza and Lebanon.
Any leadership that emerges in Tehran in the next few weeks – be that the weakened old guard or the reformists – will persist with this message and with strategy to use people living in Gaza as pawns in Iran’s attempts to become a nuclear power. Talking to Hamas is not enough to bring about peace for Israel because they will only act on Tehran’s orders.
If weakened President Ahmedinejad stays in power, the prospects for peace look bleak. He does not want to engage with the West, and we would have to look to Russia – and the lead negotiator for the quartet, Mr. tony Blair – to try to broker a deal.
As President Obama said, “The world is watching”. This year’s events in Tehran will determine the peace prospects across the Middle east for a generation.
