Archive for July, 2009

The Palestinian JFK? Arafat’s death and conspiracy theory

Posted in Middle East Conflict on July 31, 2009 by David Abrahams

The cause of death of the Yasser Arafat is once again on the Middle East radar. Ever since he died on 11th November 2004 in Paris, there have been accusations that Israel killed Arafat. Another claim was that Arafat died from AIDS. Only recently, the news network Al-Jazeera added on another (sub) theory, accusing the Palestinian Authority Chairman, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), of helping Israel to kill Arafat. Having visited Arafat 9 months before he died, I think I have my own insight about these theories and their so-called claims.

So what is the basis for each theory?

- Israel poisoned Arafat: according to this theory, Israel carried out the assassination of Arafat by means of poisoning his food or his medicine. The poisoning was carried out with the approval of the US and with the help of French doctors who concealed the truth, since they believed this was safer to ensure some stability between Israel and the Palestinians. The main advocate of this theory is Arafat’s former political advisor, Bassam Abu Sharif. Abu Sharif claimed in an interview to the Palestinian TV that 2 years prior to Arafat’s death, he was tipped about a conversation between Ariel Sharon, then Israeli Prime Minister and Shaul Mofaz, then Israeli Chief of Staff, in which Sharon approved a “clean” assassination of Arafat. Needless to say, other supporters of this theory involve the Mossad as well.
- Abu Mazen assisted Israel: This is a secondary theory to the assassination theory. This new theory has recently re-ignited the argument when it was presented by Farouk Kaddoumi, formally a Fatah and PLO senior official and in practice a fierce opponent of Abu Mazen. Kaddoumi claimed in a press conference in mid-July that Abu Mazen and Mohammed Dahlan, Fatah leader in Gaza Strip, took part in a 2004 meeting with Ariel Sharon and American officials in which the assassination of Arafat was discussed.
- Arafat died of AIDS:  this theory was presented in 2007 by Ahmed Jibril, a senior PLO figure and the founder & head of the PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine). Jibril referred to a French medical report which allegedly reported AIDS as Arafat’s cause of death.

As mentioned earlier, I had the opportunity to visit Yasser Arafat 9 months before he died. He was in deteriorating health but he was still strong mentally. On top of a table behind his chair was an oxygen machine, which was removed from the official photo we were given after the visit. We were not allowed to take our own photographs during the visit since the oxygen machine would have been in view. He confided in me how every afternoon he went downstairs to his premises in the basement for some rest to regain his strength and enable him to carry on. It was obvious he was ill, with a frail frame and gaunt face.

The memory of that meeting resurfaced due to the recent debate, as if Arafat’s death could be compared to the open-ended JFK assassination.
On the one hand, some of the main actors refuse to reveal their cards, a situation that easily triggers conspiracy theories. The known examples are the refusal of the French intelligence to reveal Arafat’s medical report, and the refusal of his widow, Suha, for an autopsy shortly after his death.
On the other hand, we must remember that the deceased was a 75-year old sick man, who spent his last years besieged in his Ramallah headquarters, placed under great political and military pressures. And, contrary to JFK, he was not shot from a distance but died in a hospital bed surrounded by excellent physicians.

Moreover, we must understand the creation of these theories in the right political context. Arafat’s public figure was never perceived as a religious-immortal one, unlike the Dalai Lama. Nor was he perceived as a Palestinian version of North Korea’s Kim Il Sung “eternal president”. Nevertheless, because Arafat never nourished political inheritors, his death caused a huge political and emotional void in the minds and hearts of the Palestinian people. This psychological shock, along with his history of surviving assassination attempts and other accidents, has made the simple possibility of natural death indigestible. As of the other theories, we must remember that they were distributed by fierce political rivals of Arafat and Abu Mazen. Jibril may have hinted to the ongoing rumours regarding Arafat’s homosexuality, thus slandering Arafat’s image. Kaddoumi uses the new allegations as a weapon in his battle with Abu Mazen on the leadership of the Palestinian political systems.

Indeed, it is time that the truth about Arafat’s death would be revealed. Being an important political and public figure in his life, his death cannot be hidden from the public eye. Nevertheless, I think it is high time that the Palestinian political leadership should focus on present challenges and future opportunities than on past occurrences.

There will be no Middle East Peace deal without Tehran’s Blessing

Posted in Middle East Conflict on July 6, 2009 by David Abrahams
By David Abrahams

For there to be peace inside and along the borders of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu has to negotiate one or more peace deals with Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian authority. The courting of Syria by the West is on track, and a deal with them will provide momentum towards a deal with the Palestinians.

The Syria peace deal does not need to be done until the Palestinians are ready to talk peace. And until the turmoil in Tehran is resolved, it will not become clear to the leadership of Hamas whether Iran will let them negotiate at all. For, by contrast to the courting of Syria, the west attempts to court Hamas have been disastrous.

When secret “Proximity” talks took place in London recently between western intelligence officials, Israelis and advisers to the Hamas Prime Minister Haniyya, President Abbas condemned the talks (worried that Hamas was outmanouevering Fatah). But the talks made no progress not because of anything said by Abbas, but because of the influence of Tehran over the leadership of Hamas.

Since the West’s attempt to court Hamas, one of Hamas’ lead in the talks, Dr. Yusuf, has been deposed of his position as advisor to PM Haniyya and moved to a marginal position in the foreign ministry. His colleague and partner Gazi Hamad was deposed as Haniyya’s spokesman and moved to the position of the closed Rafah crossing station. The forces in Hamas that do not want a dialogue with the West are stronger than the proponents of this dialogue.

The reason they do not want a dialogue is because they are propped up by Tehran, which has its own agenda – to build a nuclear bomb. To achieve this, Tehran needs to deter Israel from launching a unilateral attack on their nuclear facilities, and they need Gaza as part of that deterrence. Any Western influence in Gaza will detach Hamas from playing a part in Iran’s deterrence wall. The message Tehran is trying to send is, If Israel attacks Iran, then Israel can expect retaliation from Gaza and Lebanon.

Any leadership that emerges in Tehran in the next few weeks – be that the weakened old guard or the reformists – will persist with this message and with strategy to use people living in Gaza as pawns in Iran’s attempts to become a nuclear power. Talking to Hamas is not enough to bring about peace for Israel because they will only act on Tehran’s orders.

If weakened President Ahmedinejad stays in power, the prospects for peace look bleak. He does not want to engage with the West, and we would have to look to Russia – and the lead negotiator for the quartet, Mr. tony Blair – to try to broker a deal.

As President Obama said, “The world is watching”. This year’s events in Tehran will determine the peace prospects across the Middle east for a generation.